Il futuro delle vaccinazioni COVID-19

A different disease

COVID-19 rimane una situazione in costante evoluzione e nulla è certo. Tuttavia, utilizzando i dati esistenti, gli scienziati sono ora in grado di prevedere gli esiti più probabili.

COVID-19 isn't likely to disappear anytime soon. But with its effects reduced by a combination of vaccination, immunity from being infected, and the overall less intense symptoms of the Omicron variant¹, how we deal with it may change significantly in the future.

Ian Jones, professor of virology from Reading University, explains: "The disease today is very different from how it was when the virus first broke out.

"Questo è in parte perché la maggior parte delle persone ora ha una certa immunità grazie agli anticorpi - proteine che combattono le malattie sviluppate dai nostri corpi during either vaccinazione o un'infezione precedente - but also because the current strain of virus is less likely to cause severe disease in the general population."

Vaccination and infection

In the UK, most of us have been vaccinated, have contracted COVID-19, or both², e quindi è probabile che ne abbiano alcuni residual immunity to the virus. This means that even if we are exposed to COVID-19, we are less likely to contract it than someone with no antibodies and, if we do succumb to infection, are likely to present with milder symptoms.

"The COVID-19 vaccinations haven't been around long enough for us to know how long immunity will last," explains Professor Jones. "There's likely to be a slow decline in protection, but you will probably have some beneficial immunity one or even two years out."

Will we need booster vaccines?

Earlier in the pandemic, healthy members of the public were advised to get vaccinated in order to protect others. However, Professor Jones predicts that future COVID-19 booster jabs are likely to be aimed at the most vulnerable³ - inclusi quelli oltre i 75 anni, i residenti delle case di cura e le persone con sistemi immunitari compromessi - e offerto su base volontaria, proprio come l'attuale vaccino antinfluenzale.

"The question of whether you would want to boost existing immunity with an additional vaccine really depends on the strength of the virus and how much it's circulating. There won't be a call for vaccine passports or anything like that - it will be purely voluntary."

An evolving situation

Quando si tratta di scienza e malattie, non ci sono certezze. Tuttavia, il fatto che i virus tendano ad evolversi sta attualmente giocando a nostro favore con il COVID-19, poiché mutazioni come Omicron si sono dimostrati meno rischiosi per la nostra salute rispetto a varianti precedenti come la Delta. Tuttavia, vale la pena ricordare che le mutazioni possono anche rendere i virus più pericolosi.

In the case of COVID-19, many scientists believe that the virus will continue to weaken. That said, when it comes to disease, things are not always straightforward - there are no guarantees.

The future of the vaccination

In the coming years, the COVID-19 booster is likely to be offered mainly to those who are considered particularly vulnerable to the virus, as is the case with the current flu vaccination.

If COVID-19 continues to weaken, it may be that in future years, vaccination becomes completely unnecessary for all groups.

While it remains important to keep up to date with any developments, when it comes to COVID-19, the future is definitely looking brighter.

Ulteriori letture

1. Looi: How are COVID-19 symptoms changing?

2. Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights.

3. GOV.UK: Most vulnerable to be offered spring COVID-19 booster.